It's not the shoe deal, Mars Blackmon

"Now I don't know what you do with your five-percent, but…when you put [my husband] in a Waterbed Warehouse commercial, excuse me, you are making him common when you know he deserves the big four—shoe, car, clothing, soft drink. The four jewels of the celebrity endorsement dollar."
                                                        —Marcie Tidwell in the movie Jerry Maguire

With the 2008 NBA Draft just a few days away, the focus is on this year's rookie class and the potential impact they will hopefully make in the NBA. The NBA Draft is perhaps the most predictable of the pro leagues in terms of how selections pan out. Yes, the NBA always has its share of draft busts (e.g., Michael Olowokandi over Pierce, Nowitzki, Carter, et al.), but on average, the higher the pick, the better the performance. On the other hand, the NFL Draft fares much worse as a predictor of future performance, particularly when it comes to drafting quarterbacks. In the 2007-08 season, 7 out of the top 11 rated quarterbacks in the NFL were drafted after the 1st round.

Why is it easier to predict how basketball players will perform in the NBA? Basketball players mature earlier, at least in terms of size, weight and strength. Forget the argument whether young players are ready to play in NBA right out of high school and now after one year of college: These players selected in the NBA lottery have, on average, fared very well.

Predicting the next big Money Players

Let's look at how much money this year's rookie class will earn. Their playing contracts are "slotted" by selection. The Rookie Scale, established in 1995 by agreement between players and owners, determines what the first round picks are paid. In 1994, the last year of a free market for rookies, Glenn Robinson, the #1 pick in the NBA out of Purdue, reportedly signed a 10-year, $68.15 million contract. In 1995, Joe Smith, the #1 pick out of Maryland, earned $2,051,000 in his rookie year. The first pick in this year's NBA Draft, most likely Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose, will be the first rookie to earn above $4 million from his playing contract since 1994.

Endorsement income

Since NBA rookie playing salaries are pre-determined by draft selection, agents recruiting first-round picks typically emphasize what they can do to exploit marketing and endorsement opportunities. There is a good chance that one, maybe two marketing stars will emerge from this year's NBA Draft, but who those players are is less predictable.

SI.com's "Fortunate 50" lists the fifty highest-earning U.S. athletes (which includes salaries and/or winnings plus endorsement income). This is a great list to be on. In 2008, the average total annual earnings of the 50 athletes was $25.1 million. The breakdown: 64% from salaries/winnings and 36% from endorsements.

I crunched the numbers for NBA players. There are twenty six NBA players on SI.com's list. Thirteen of these players earn $5 million or more per year from endorsements. For these really fortunate 13 NBA players, they earn on average $11.6 million out of their total $26.6 million a year, or 44%, from endorsements. Then the bottom falls out for the 13 "less fortunate" NBA players. They derive just $1.1 million out of their total earnings of $18.4 million, or 6%, from endorsements. The takeaway: Endorsement money dries up fast. Focus on your playing career, be a good guy and perhaps the endorsement money will flow your way.

--Marc Isenberg

Comments

[andy fine]

now that everyone has to do the one and done in college, one would think that to maximize future pro endorsements it would pay to have the most college tv exposure.So, going to the highest profile schools in the power conferences would be advantageous to one's wallet, right?

[Marc Isenberg]

Being a featured player on a team that makes a deep NCAA tournament run is the sweet spot (see Kevin Love). On the other hand, Michael Beasley didn't exactly pick a high-profile college program. IMO, the cameras tend to find the best players no matter where they go.